The two leading candidates are President Muhammadu Buhari of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
A collection of eight
predictions by international analysts, published by Bloomberg, shows
that the 2019 presidential election will be keenly contested by the two
leading candidates as the election has “split analysts down the middle”.
Out
of the eight forecasts by eight analysts, four predicted President
Buhari will win a second term while the remaining four also predicted a
victory
for Atiku.
Four predictions in favour of President Buhari
1. Control Risks
Bloomberg
reports that Control Risks, a London-based company, predicted that
President Buhari will win by a small margin due to the divisions within
the PDP, Atiku’s party, and its lacklustre campaigning.
2. Eurasia Group
According
to Eurasia Group’s forecast, President Buhari has a 60% chance of
winning. The New York risk firm said it predicted victory for Buhari
because his cause has been helped by some key PDP politicians, including
Senate president Bukola Saraki and governors in the southeast, who
didn’t allegedly give active support to Atiku’s campaign.
3. NKC African Economics
Jared
Jeffery, an analyst at NKC African Economics, a research house based in
Paarl, South Africa, said though President Buhari’s approval ratings
have plunged since he became president four years ago, incumbent
presidents in Africa win around 85% of the elections they contest.
He
added that Buhari is from the northwest, which is the region with the
most voters, and he’s maintained an “image of incorruptibility.”
4. Capital Economics
John
Ashbourne, an economist at the London-based research group, said: “The
advantages of incumbency will help President Buhari clinch a narrow
win”.
Four predictions in favour of Atiku Abubakar
1. Fitch Solutions
Fitch
Solutions predicted that Atiku has the edge given how Buhari “struggled
to fulfill key election pledges’’ made when he came to office in 2015.
The London-based research house also said Atiku may be able to take a
large chunk of votes in the north, a region Buhari dominated last time
when he was facing former President Goodluck Jonathan.
2. Songhai Advisory
Songhai
Advisory in its forecast saidAtiku will benefit from the support of key
powerbrokers, including ex-army chiefs and former heads of state such
as Ibrahim Babangida and Olusegun Obasanjo. It specifically highlighted
Obasanjo’s endorsement of Atiku, saying the latter “continues to sway
election outcomes’’ and since he left office in 2007.
3. Teneo Intelligence
Teneo
Intelligence predicted that Atiku will get up to 57% of the votes,
against 42% for Buhari if the election is free and fair.
4. Verisk Maplecroft
Ed
Hobey-Hamsher, an Africa analyst at the Bath, UK-based firm predicted
that Buhari has just 41% chance of victory. It said that President
Buhari’s chances have been damaged, in part, by recent military setbacks
against Boko Haram and other militants affiliated to Islamic State in
the northeast.
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