Gombe is one of the two states in the North East under the control of the PDP. The second is Taraba, but beyond the control, this is the region where the PDP presidential candidate comes from, hence making the voting pattern interesting.
Four other states in the North East: Adamawa, Borno, Bauchi and Yobe, are under the control of the APC.
However,
while Atiku may like to get an upper hand in all the states, analysts
believe that his interest in winning overwhelmingly in Taraba and Gombe,
and to a greater extent in Adamawa, his state of origin, cannot be
overemphasised.
In Gombe for instance, the PDP has been the
ruling party for a record 16 years without interruption. The party came
to power in 2003 when Danjuma Goje wrested power from late Gov. Abubakar
Habu Hashidu of the defunct ANPP, and since then, it continued to hold
sway.
There was a time in the state that all political office
holders: the governor, three senators, six House of Representatives
members, 24 state legislators, 11 local government chairmen and 114
councilors were from the PDP.
Virtually all the development
projects in the state: roads, three universities, colleges of nursing
and midwifery and legal and Islamic studies, a polytechnic, airport,
among several others, were constructed during PDP administration.
As
such, despite stiff opposition in the North over the emergence of
Goodluck Ebele Jonathan as PDP presidential candidate against the
interest of the region in 2011, the party was able to get more than the
required 25 per cent votes from Gombe State.
Jonathan scored 290,347 votes against Muhammadu Buhari of the CPC then, who got 459,898.
Also,
in 2015, despite the APC ‘tsunami’ that swept northern states, the PDP
was able to retain the governorship seat two weeks after people of the
state massively voted for President Buhari of the APC.
During the
2015 presidential polls, the state was divided along ethnic and
religious lines, hence Jonathan got only 96,873 votes while Buhari
scored 361,245.
However, for the 2019 elections, both Atiku and
Buhari are from the same ethnic and religious faith, and therefore, the
election is expected to be a keen contest.
There are 1,394, 856 registered voters as released by INEC with 94,372 uncollected PVCs in Gombe State.
Prior
to the coming of the APC-led administration in 2015, people of the
state; being neighbours to Borno, Yobe and Adamawa, where insurgency was
at its peak, were living under perpetual fear of Boko Haram attacks.
However,
with the relative peace now in the zone, people of Gombe State are
solidly behind the APC presidential candidate who they see as a messiah.
Also,
almost all the major political actors in the state are now in the APC
and have pledged to work for Buhari’s victory. The latest to defect is
the Director General of the PDP Campaign Council in the state, Alhaji
Bala Bello Tinka.
However, the people of the North East have
been yearning to take a shot at the presidency considering that since
the country’s first and only Prime Minister, Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa,
from Bauchi State, the closest the zone got to the presidency, was when
Atiku served as vice president during President Olusegun Obasanjo’s
tenure.
As such, the PDP promoters are exploiting that
opportunity by reminding people of Gombe not to allow the chance of
producing a president slip away from them.
Also, apart from the
relative peace being enjoyed in the state, people cannot point to a
single physical development project initiated by the APC government and
executed in the state.
There are also people who are disappointed
by Buhari’s performance in the last four years. Therefore, these groups
may throw their weight behind Atiku.
However, Dr. Babayo Sule, a
political analyst, said the 2019 presidential election in Gombe would
not produce much surprise because of some considerable factors.
“Analytically,
the final result may look around 60 per cent in favour of President
Buhari and 40 per cent tilting towards Atiku,” he said.
“This is
because the North East where Gombe belongs to has become a traditional
stronghold of President Buhari owing to his performance in terms of
minimising the menace of Boko Haram and continuation of work on the
abandoned construction of the Trunk A highways from Gombe to Yola and in
other parts of the North East,” he said.
He added that, “The
president is also enjoying the power of incumbency which is a decisive
factor in Nigerian elections and has unrepentant followers in Gombe like
other parts of the North who see the president as a man of integrity
that they cannot afford to replace for now. These are the factors that
will lead to a slight victory presumably.”
On the other hand, Dr.
Babayo said Atiku would surely give President Buhari a good fight in
Gombe owing to his belonging to the North East because the voting
behaviour in Nigeria historically displayed sentiments of region,
religion and ethnicity.
“Emotion can play on psychology of many voters in Gombe to sway towards voting for Atiku in this regard,” he said.
“Also,
Gombe is one of the power houses of PDP in the North entirely and the
incumbency factor of the state government can fetch many votes for
Atiku. Besides, the PDP gubernatorial candidate, Sen. Usman Bayero
Nafada, who is a strong contender, can influence his loyalists to vote
for Atiku as he expressed his unalloyed support to his party’s
presidential candidate during the BBC Hausa Service debate in Gombe.
Additionally, Atiku’s moneybag can offer him potential for securing many
votes in the state,” he said.
Furthermore, during the campaigns
of Atiku and Buhari, who are the only presidential candidates so far to
visit the state, the Pantami Township Stadium was filled to capacity
with the number of supporters outside the stadium outnumbering those
inside.
Thus, it is believed that the two leading presidential candidates may likely split the 1,394,856 registerev voters in the state.
Source:- Dailytrustng
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